Which is the real corn acreage in Argentina?

Buenos Aires, August 16th. This week, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA as it Spanish acronym) launched a pre-campaign inform about the 2018/19 corn season, that says the corn area could reach a record of 5.8 million hectares, a 7,4% increase compared with 5.4 million hectares in the 2017/18 season. The BCBA explains this area is 33% above from the 4.36 million hectares average area from 2013/17 period.

But there are some differences between private estimates and officials ones. While the ministry of Ag-Industry says that 2017 corn acreage rounded 7 million hectares and production reached 43.6 MMT, the BCBA estimated 5.4 million hectares and a 31.1 MMT output. In both cases, they consider only cash crop area, or the corn area destined to “commercial grain”, i.e., the grain that enters in the formal market. This is a relevant point since the Ag-Industry Ministry estimates total corn area around 9.1 million hectares, including the corn destined for silage or farm consumption.

Until the 2012/13 season, the gap between official and private estimates didn’t surpass a million hectares. But in the next three campaigns, this gap raised to more than 2 million hectares. Finally, since 2015/16, after a new administration took the control of the Government, the gap added one million hectares until a record of 3.6 million in 2017/18 harvest, as we see in the next graph:

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires and ministry of AgIndustry

Something similar occurs with Argentina’s corn production. In 2010/11 both official and private estimation were similar, around 24 MTT. The gap started at 2012/13 season, when Ministry of Agriculture estimated 32,1 MMT versus 27 MMT from BCBA and 27 MMT too from the USDA. This gap deepened also since the 2015/16 campaign to reach near 10 MMT.

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires and ministry of AgIndustry

But there is a crucial issue. If the official data is real, Argentina exported more than 70% of its corn production until 2011/12, and only the 50% in the last two campaigns. Instead of this, using BCBA data, corn exports round 70% of the production along this period.

Anyway, there is a certainty: farmers will plant more corn this season due to a better economic margin respect the soybean. The Macri’s Administration recently decided to stop the reduction of the export taxes to the oilseed, that was fixed at a 23% rate. Instead of this, corn has 0% export tax since December 2015, when President Macri fulfilled its promise to farmers to cut the export taxes to cereals and other crops except for soybean.

 

Trả lời

Email của bạn sẽ không được hiển thị công khai. Các trường bắt buộc được đánh dấu *